The NOAA employee was returning home after a
three-month assignment in Port Angeles, helping the local National Weather
Service staff upgrade to a new generation of meteorological equipment.
I asked him
for his thoughts on climate change. It
was a timely question. Later that
morning, my traveling companion and I would sit on the tarmac for over an hour waiting
for a thunderstorm to abate so fueling could be completed and we could depart
for home. I lived in Seattle for five
years in the 1980s and don’t recall a single summertime thunderstorm, but it
was the second Seattle thunderstorm of the summer of 2012.
Without
hesitation, the NOAA employee responded that we can only judge long-term
climate patterns in hindsight. That it
might be a century hence before we can truly and accurately assess what is
happening to our climate in 2012.
It reminded
me of the joke about the balloonist caught in a freak wind pattern. After being tossed about for several hours,
he found himself above unfamiliar terrain.
He spotted a farmer plowing a field below and called out “Where am I?”
The farmer
scratched his chin, thought for a moment, and called back “You’re in a balloon.”
The
balloonist turned to his companion and said “He’s completely right. And completely useless.”
The “can’t
judge for a century” response was equally correct and useless. I’m not criticizing the NOAA employee. His response probably came directly from the
NOAA playbook and was intended to avoid embroiling employees in sidewalks
debates with extremists on either end of the climate change spectrum.
I would have
tried him to convince that I was asking in a true spirit of intellectual
curiosity, not as the opening to a rant, but the rental car folks finally
admitted defeat and sent us on our way without receipts. (I’ll never again patronize that rental car
company.)
This
conversation was brought forcefully back to mind by Hurricane Sandy. It’s nice to say that we won’t know about a
climate change for a century, but it’s not at all helpful. Instead, we must make decisions on the best
information at hand and then implement the policies needed to follow those
decisions.
I had hoped
to delay this climate change discussion for awhile longer. I’m far from a climate change expert. I may have done more reading than others, but
it’s an exceedingly complex subject.
I’ve promised to give myself a gift of climate change knowledge for Christmas
this year, setting aside all other reading materials for the two holiday weeks
in favor of four books on climate change that represent the full spectrum of
opinions. (Hey, you have your Yuletide
traditions, I have mine.)
But
Hurricane Sandy forced my hand. I’ll
introduce the subject of climate change here, with the plan to return to it as
events bring it back to the fore.
Particularly after Christmas.
Climate
change is strongly tied to the urbanism focus of this blog. This article in Salon makes the connection well. The article is long and sometimes wanders,
but remains well worth your attention. Writer
Jeff Speck, who has a forthcoming book on walkability that will also be on my
reading table, notes that the average energy use of people living in walkable
urban settings is far less than of people living in drivable suburbia.
Speck argues
that we’ve been seduced by “gizmo green”, the thought that we can add solar
panels or a bamboo floor to our current lifestyle and think we’ve done
enough. But he notes that the average savings
from a year of CFL lightbulbs is equal to the energy savings from one week of
living in a walkable urban community.
Urbanism isn’t a panacea to the energy usage that may be behind climate
change, but it’s a damn fine start.
Which brings
us back to the question of whether climate change caused Sandy. The answer is probably not. However, it probably made Sandy worse. The current studies indicate that storm
frequencies won’t be impacted by climate change, but the intensity of weather
events will be increased. For
references, this is the infamous Business Week article of last week and here is
another from the Union of Concerned Scientists. There are
many other articles reporting the same information.
None of this
proves that climate change is real, is caused by humans, or is changing the
weather. It’s possible that scientists
have missed a key calculation or that the earth has an ability to moderate the
climate that we’ve yet to discern. But
it is the considered opinion of a vast majority of the scientists who studied
it and it’s the best information we have.
Besides, do
we buckle our seatbelts knowing that the odds of an accident during any
particular trip are very slight? Do we
submit to airport security screenings when the probability of a terrorist
targeting our flight is impossibly low?
Doesn’t it make sense to give the same consideration to climate change,
which is credibly judged to be much more likely than either? Especially when, in the case of urbanism, all
we need to do is remove the impediments slowing urbanism? A majority of the population has already
expressed a desire for greater walkability, so the marketplace will work just
fine if we let it.
By the way,
I’m not putting myself on a pedestal here.
I try to limit my carbon footprint, but I’m far from perfect. (If I was perfect, I wouldn’t have been at
Sea-Tac Airport this summer.) But I’m
aware of the concern and am continually looking for ways to do better.
Photo note: The photo is from the Washington Post.
As always,
your questions or comments will be appreciated.
Please comment below or email me.
And thanks for reading. - Dave Alden (davealden53@comcast.net)
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