In my last post, I wrote about a topic that was to come
before the Petaluma City Council on the evening of August 3. The Council will decide whether the Final
Environmental Impact Report (FEIR) for the Rainier Connector, a proposed
arterial that would augment the traffic grid in the northwestern quadrant of town,
meets the standards for environmental studies under the California
Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).
In the post,
I explained that I was frustrated by two aspects of the decision. First, I was disappointed that the traffic
section of the FEIR relied on older standards that will soon be replaced by legislatively-mandated
regulations that will better reflect current thinking on traffic generation and
climate change. While I understood the
need to complete the FEIR on the current schedule, it was still frustrating to
see Petaluma disregard the best available approach, particularly on climate
change.
Second, I
thought that the Connector wasn’t yet ripe for construction. While there is an argument for soon building
a small segment of the Connector, the underpass beneath Highway 101 that can be
constructed more efficiently if done simultaneously with upcoming freeway widening,
my urbanist thinking says that the remainder of the road isn’t needed for
years. However, the inclusion of the
entire Connector in the FEIR, and the process that requires the Council to vote
the entire FEIR either up or down, precluded that level of nuance in the
decision.
I remain
comfortable with both of my conclusions.
And yet I judged that, despite my reservations, I would probably vote for
the FEIR if I were on the Council, primarily to keep the underpass moving
ahead.
However,
from comments received, I also understand that I could have also dug deeper
into the subject. It’s a problem which I
often encountered in writing this blog.
To my eyes, urbanism is a glorious multi-dimensional quilt with the
various elements connecting in weird and wonderful ways, many of which I’m
still working to fully grasp.
In a blog
post, I focus on a tiny patch of the quilt, trying to explain the pattern to
the readers while also sometimes adding a stitch or two of my own. But at the same time I need to explain how
the patch fits into the nearby areas and into the entire pattern. And I need to do so without consuming the
entire length of the post or exhausting the attention span of readers.
It’s a
challenge for which my writing skills are often inadequate. Hence, the occasional need to go back and
fill in more detail to what I’ve already written. This post, and the next one, will be in that
mode.
Today, I’ll
tackle the question of why building the Connector now would be premature. It’s a subject on which I’ve written in the
past, but I understand that many readers aren’t interested in returning to long
ago posts, so I’ll provide an update here.
There are
two principal reasons why building the Rainier Connector now would be a
mistake. One is induced traffic. The other is maintenance.
The theory
of induced traffic argues that roads create trips. I know this seems absurd at first blush, but
it really does appear to be true. Let me
ask a pair of questions. Have you ever
thought that you’d like to travel to the other side of your town, but didn’t
want to drive in traffic, so deferred your trip until later? If there was less congestion, perhaps because
a new route had just opened, might you change your mind and take the trip
now? I expect that most of us would
answer yes to both questions.
Congratulations, that makes all of us participants in induced traffic.
Research has
shown that up to half of all new traffic capacity is consumed on the day the ribbon
is cut. And that much of the remaining
capacity of consumed over the next decade, even in the absence of new
development.
The
implication is that congestion relief won’t happen. Instead congestion will return to current
levels over the next decade. More people
may travel between the east and west sides of town before congestion occurs,
but that is about the only real benefit for the $90 million project cost. If the primary motivation for building the
Rainier Connector is congestion relief, then it shouldn’t be built.
Furthermore,
as congestion reasserts itself, there would be opposition to new development on
the grounds of traffic congestion, even though that new development is projected
to help pay the debt from the Rainier construction. It would become a Gordian knot.
And really,
the story is even worse than that. Let
me use Friedman’s as an example. (For
those not in the North Bay, Friedman’s is a regional chain analogous to Home Depot
or Lowe’s, but better.)
I love the
fact that Friedman’s has returned to Petaluma.
Indeed, of the two recently opened Petaluma shopping centers, Friedman’s
is the only business that I truly welcomed.
But I also love
Rex Hardware in downtown Petaluma, relatively convenient to my home. Rex is a cozy 90-year-old business that still
sells individual screws, my personal measure of a good hardware store. For most purchases, especially the smaller
ones, I go to Rex. (I’ve already visited
there once today.) Yes, I pay a little
more, but I save time and travel costs.
I also have access to folks who give great advice.
But imagine if the Rainier Connector was
built, creating a few years in which congestion might be less. More folks would likely trek across town to
Friedman’s, looking to save a few dollars compared to Rex. Seeing the business loss, Rex might decide to
finally close their doors, leaving as the only option a drive across town to
Friedman’s, creating yet more traffic as congestion reasserts itself.
And Friedman’s/Rex
is only the hardware element of local retail.
Consider all the other retail segments that make up a community and
imagine all the additional car trips that would created as the retail options lessen.
Managing
congestion means encouraging neighborhood businesses that require few or no
driving miles, not building streets that allow people to more easily bypass
those businesses.
The maintenance issue relies on a more intuitive
argument. From the day roads are built,
they need maintenance. Upkeep is
essential is get good service over the life of the road. I don’t have a good estimate of the
maintenance costs for the Rainier Connector, but at least $100,000 per year
seems a reasonable low-end guess.
Petaluma doesn’t have the funds to maintain its current roads. How does adding $100,000 to a failed bottom
line make sense?
I still
believe that someday Petaluma will need the Rainier Connector. The coherency of the traffic grid requires
it. But that someday should be when the
town has many more people and the Connector is needed to give those folks
logical routes of travel. Someday isn’t
today.
In my next
post, I’ll write about what urbanism offers as an alternative to building new arterials. I’ll offer both a view of the big urbanist picture
that applies everywhere and a series of thoughts that apply specifically to the
Rainier Connector.
As always,
your questions or comments will be appreciated.
Please comment below or email me.
And thanks for reading. - Dave Alden (davealden53@comcast.net)
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