In the
spring of 2009, I attended a series of public lectures about urbanism on the University
of California, Berkeley campus. Among
the speakers was a representative from Calthorpe Associates, the firm founded
by leading edge urbanist Peter Calthorpe.
I’ve forgotten
the name of the Calthorpe person, but one of his comments stuck with me. In looking at the long-range market for American
housing, he and his associates had calculated the number of large-lot single-family
homes that would be needed in 2037. It
was fewer than the number of large-lot single-family homes that existed in 2009. We could have immediately stopped building homes
in that category and, assuming that we preserved much of the current
stock, still met demand thirty years in the future.
Among the professionals
with whom I attended the lecture series, several were openly skeptical of the projection,
noting the urbanist slant of Calthorpe Associates. Personally, I found the forecast intriguing
and would have appreciated the opportunity to dig into the data and assumptions
behind it. I thought the prediction might
well have been accurate.
But I didn’t
foresee that the implications of a reduced demand for large single-family homes
would begin impacting seniors within only a few years. Indeed, it is one of the largest stumbling
blocks to finding a better solution for senior life in the U.S., a topic that I
began considering in my previous post.
Writing for CityLab
(the former Atlantic Cities), Kriston Capps outlines
the problem that seniors are facing with their suburban homes. Many are unable to sell their homes in the
aftermath of the great recession. Not
only are many potential buyers more interested in urban life, but the tightening
of mortgage qualification standards precludes the buyers would may still wish a
suburban life from securing the needed financing.
Adding onto
the Capps observations, the continued greying of the population means that more
and more suburban homes are available at a time when fewer buyers interested in
them. It’s the Calthorpe projection,
filtered through supply-and-demand economics.
Also, many seniors
had based retirement planning on financial projections that used the home
values from before the burst of the housing bubble. Even if the seniors can find home buyers in
2014, the prices may not support the retirement they had envisioned.
As Capps
then notes, in an observation repeated by Rachel Kaufman writing in Urbanful, if
seniors are forced to remain in their homes, multiple improvements are required
if they are to live safe and comfortable lives.
The changes can include wider doorways, single-level living, lower
counters, grab bars, and levers in place of doorknobs.
But the
changes have costs, sometimes substantial costs, and the bill may be beyond the
reach of seniors already struggling with reduced home values. (Capps also notes that seniors are
increasingly likely to fall behind in mortgage payments.)
The final
part of the story is told by Emily Badger, writing in the Washington
Post. She notes that much of suburbia is
livable only to those who can drive. As
seniors reach the age when they’re no longer safe behind the wheel, or when
family, doctors, or the state has taken away driving privileges, then they become
truly isolated.
If we try to
tally the number of ways in which senior life has run afoul of urbanism, the
result is astonishing. It’s like a
Catch-22 squared, or even cubed. At a
time of life when living in urbanist settings might best fit their daily needs,
many seniors find that the desirability of urban life to other demographic segments
has reduced the market values of the seniors’ suburban homes, limiting
their ability to move to urban retirement destinations or even to afford the
modifications necessary to make their homes safe as they age.
Is the
problem insolvable? To a large extent,
yes. But there are always at least a few
actions that can be taken. Over my next
posts, I’ll write about remedies to the current dilemma and strategies to keep
the next wave of seniors from being trapped by the same constraints.
As always,
your questions or comments will be appreciated.
Please comment below or email me.
And thanks for reading. - Dave Alden (davealden53@comcast.net)
I discovered your blog when it was shared by Petaluma Patch via email as it was highlighted.
ReplyDeleteI've read through some of your older posts and am looking forward to the future ones specifically pointed towards the seniors and urbanism.
I have a mother with whom we've recently been having discussions about her best livability options after a recent stint in a skilled nursing facility. We're facing the reality that her current situation may not be sustainable in the years to come.
My husband and I are now in our 50's and are looking at what the future may hold for us and whether we can even afford to retire in our beautiful Petaluma.
So your posts come at a good time to help us learn more...I look forward to the future one...
Anatasia, thanks for writing. I have a mother for whom I'm seeking a good living solution in the North Bay, so I understand the issues.
DeleteOf course, my blog approach won't be to critique current options as much as to hopefully lay the groundwork for better options in the future, when my wife and I will also be in need of it.