With my last
couple of posts, I’ve been sucked back into the subject of possible reuse of
the Sonoma Marin Fairgrounds. First, I recounted
my inadvertent quashing of youthful creativity. And then I explained why, as worthwhile and insightful
as the Petaluma Urban Chat conceptual design effort has been, there’s a good
chance that the eventual redevelopment will differ significantly from the Urban Chat
plan.
Today, I’ll
finish the hat trick by trying to peer through the fog of land use to
anticipate the path that the Fairgrounds will likely take from today until the
last resident moves in, perhaps two decades hence.
I should
emphasize that I’m not relying on any inside information to write this
post. No one inside of City Hall or
anywhere else is feeding me confidential insights. I’m writing based solely on nearly four
decades of observing public process and land use, in Petaluma and elsewhere.
As of today,
this is what my crystal ball is telling me to expect.
Legalities
and Politics: The next year, or perhaps two years, will be consumed
with legal and political questions mostly outside of the land use issues. There’s little doubt that Petaluma would be
better served if a portion of the Fairgrounds were converted to a more vibrant
daily use. But the Fair Board, City
Council, and others will need to wrestle with the legalities of ending the current
lease, adopting a new lease, and judging the effects of state statutes and
precedents on the process. These are
subjects on which I have little or no knowledge and can’t predict how they will
play out.
However, let
me insert a thought at this point. When
I talk about Petaluma having a better future with a smaller Fairgrounds, I’m
not dismissing the value of the Sonoma Marin Fair. The Fair has been a valuable element of
Petaluma’s past and can hopefully serve a similar role in the future.
And I think
the Fair can play a key role in the life experiences of young Petalumans. I can track my own childhood by the fairs in
the California towns where I lived.
The Orange Show
in San Bernardino was where I first saw the spectacle of a fair. I found it especially thrilling to youthful
eyes.
The old State
Fair in Sacramento was where I first saw a fair as a community meeting place,
stopping by the booth where my father was representing the California Highway
Department in conversations with the general public.
The Walnut
Festival in Walnut Creek was one of the first places where I experienced the
world outside of parental oversight, haunting the midway with school friends
and hoping, or fearing, to bump into girls from our school.
Back in
Sacramento, the new Cal Expo in Sacramento was where I quit scheming to bump
into girls, but instead brought my own dates.
Each of
those experiences was valuable and I wish to preserve similar experiences for future
youths, while also making Petaluma an economically vibrant place that meet the
needs of youth during the other 51 weeks of the year. This is the difficult balancing act.
Technical
and Public Input: With the politics resolved, hopefully in favor of
some extent of redevelopment, the City will likely spend at least a couple of
years considering redevelopment options.
This effort will probably involve
at least three elements, hiring a consultant team to assess opportunities and
constraints, such as hazardous material cleanup, and to prepare redevelopment
options, using City staff to assess the technical constraints on the site, such
as water and sewer capacity, and assembling a citizens’ advisory committee to channel
public input.
It’s this last element toward which the Urban
Chat effort has been targeted, creating a group of citizens who are educated
about and motivated by the Fairgrounds opportunity and who are eager to bring
the Urban Chat concepts forward while also allowing those concepts to evolve as
new information is uncovered and new ideas offered. I hope and expect that several Urban Chat
alumni would be appointed by the City Council to a citizens’ advisory
committee.
However, I
should note that citizens’ committees can easily become ineffective. Both consultants and City staff will have
their own agendas and a stronger place at the decision table. For citizens to be effective, consistent and forceful
advocacy is essential. Stating a
perspective and wandering away is a recipe for irrelevance.
I’ve served
on citizens’ committees that quickly became self-marginalizing. One recent committee began its work with nineteen
members and finished with four. But I’ve
also watched as citizens’ committees fought against dismissive attitudes and
accomplished great things.
I suspect
that having a citizens’ committee willing to roll up sleeves, to get dirty, and
not to depart until success is achieved is one of two key steps in getting to a
good plan.
The eventual
result of this stage will be the preparation of a Request for Qualifications
(RFQ) through which the City will seek a developer to undertake the
redevelopment.
(For land
use geeks, there is a key decision point here about whether the City would act
as the master developer or would give that role to a private developer. Because of the greater control and financial upside,
I’d support the City assuming the master developer role, but understand that
the world has mostly moved on from that model because most cities don’t have the
capacity to cover the financial obligations and risks, so expect the master
developer role to go to a private developer.)
Developer
Input: This is the second critical point in the process. Whether from developers vying to be chosen to
redevelop the site or from the selected developer upon further review of the
site, the day will come when the City is asked to erode the vision.
The argument
might that the developer can’t secure financing or that the marketing folks don’t
think they can sell the units. The
argument might be self-serving or it might be legitimate. But a developer will ask to reduce the public
amenities, to revert to more conventional architecture forms, or to reuse
building plans they’ve constructed elsewhere.
It’ll be essential that the City Council, Planning Commission, and City
staff push back consistently to preserve as much of the vision as possible.
If there is
one task in which all citizens can assist in the Fairgrounds process, it is
assuring that we have elected leaders in place at this critical stage who will
support urbanism and who will appoint and hire folks who will support
urbanism. The ballot box will matter.
Design
and Construction: Lastly, there is the execution of the concept. Ongoing efforts to prevent the erosion of the
adopted plan may be required, but hopefully the plan is well accepted by this
point.
However, it should
be noted that big projects don’t rise out of the ground overnight. Instead, developers and financiers can only
build projects as quickly as the product can be absorbed by the marketplace. It’s likely that a decade or more will be
required to bring the Fairground redevelopment to completion.
With the
current Fairgrounds lease expiring in 2023, a couple of years necessary for
hazardous material cleanup, and another decade for construction, the final
residents may not move into their new homes until 2035 or later.
During my
recent work with a group of teenagers on the Fairgrounds, one student advocated
for a teen center and said she knew of a band which could be booked. I held my tongue, but was tempted to note
that the band had better be in good health or might otherwise be using walkers
by the time the teen center was complete.
And that it was more likely that the student’s daughter would be the one
dancing to the music.
Even if my
crystal ball is imperfect, it’ll be a long time from today to completion. But I hope many of you are motivated to
buckle up for the ride and to do your part to ensure that the Fairgrounds redevelopment
will serve Petaluma well.
For my next
post, I’ll leave the Fairgrounds behind, but not very far behind. Above, I wrote about how changing the
direction of public policy requires continual effort by involved citizens. As if on cue, a fine example of my point appeared
in a local newspaper. I’ll explain when
I next write.
As always,
your questions or comments will be appreciated.
Please comment below or email me.
And thanks for reading. - Dave Alden (davealden53@comcast.net)
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